Friday, August 7, 2009

The U.S Employment Situation

We are going to get the U.S employment situation 8:30AM ET. Prior month nonfarm payrolls was -467,000 and economists are expecting -375,000 to -190,000 anything better than -300,000 should push the market higher. There are many cracks in fundamentals,but there are some signs of recovery like ISM, GDP. They are getting less negative. The sentiment has changed and investors become very blluish, latest poll shows over 50% of investors believe we hit the bottom! I don't call march 6th bottom unless S&P takes out 1200.
I don't have crystal ball to see what is going to happen in coming months, but if S&P500 stays above 950 it would be very positive. It's too early to go short, but if you are bearish I recommend to wait a couple days to make sure bulls are running out steam.
I won't take any action tomorrow. I would wait to see what is going to play out by Tuesday.