Friday, August 28, 2009

Elliott Wave Analysis, Bearish Outlook (Part-3)

Here is my bearish outlook I think S&P500 is near top and soon it will head lower. Wave (II) could go as high as 1130 or 1200, but I think this rally is over done and we should roll over sooner. Please note if 950, 880 & 666 support lines could hold, this scenario won't come to play.

As I explained in previous post, we are going to face the second wave of foreclosures in 2010 & 2011. Option ARM and comercial real estate are going to hit banks very hard by 2011 therefore I anticipat by mid 2011 we will hit the bottom. We could get a nice bounce from 600 but we could go lower, my bearish forecast for S&P is ~400. It coincides with the lower side the major uptrend channel that go back to 1930. Please see the chart below.

S&P500 from 1930 to 2009. The tick black line is my prediction of market moves in coming months.(originaly posted at 04/03/2009)

Bulls might want to check this out:
Bulish scenario, Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern