Monday, November 30, 2009

S&P500 Weekly Forecast (Nov,10th,09)

We finished the last week in red as I expected, but it was not what I'd like to see. We moved up all week and we got the reversal on Friday.

Anyway we could move higher on Monday but S&P500 should finish the week in red. On the other hand if S&P500 moves above 1106 it will shoot for 1120-1125.
Lets see what is going to play out.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Real GDP Chart

Real GDP is 2.8 %
Year-on-year, real GDP stood at minus 2.4% compared to minus 3.8% in the second quarter.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Market update 11/22/09

Ok! We got the side way action last week as I anticipated. S&P500 finished where it started.
This week we should go down. We are very overbought.
Pay attention to 1073 it could act as support. If S&P500 moves below 1066 bulls are in trouble. On the other hand if we shoot higher the next pull back will be bigger.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

The Importance Of 1100 For S&P500

S&P500 Technical Analysis chart:

We are at the critical levels. 1100 coincides with October high and the upper side the channel-1. If bears want to push the market lower this is the time to do it, but this week is Option expiration week therefore bulls should have the upper hand. It means we should move side way or slightly higher, but market is not rational so anything is possible. I would be in cash and wait to see what is going to play out.
On the other hand we are right above the diagonal support (see the chart in purple). S&P500 violated it 2 weeks ago but bulls managed to squeezed the short and by trapping bears caused a big short squeeze, so far they did it 5 times (see the chart blue cycles) , this game is getting too obvious. I don't know how long bulls could play this game, but Wall Street is famous in surprising investors. Since March market never staid over sold more than a couple days, this is one of characteristics of bull markets.

We got the consumer confidence data on Friday , it that was much lower than forecasted but big institutions managed to ignore the bad news and pushed the market higher. Recently we witness market rallies in face of bad news; this is not anything except market manipulation by big institutions. They had tough year in 2008 and they lost many clients therefore many did not participate in the rally until late May and they must play catch up therefore they try to finish 4th quarter positive to show to their clients that they did not fall behind, otherwise they must look for a new jobs.
Cheap dollar acts as carry trade it means investors can borrow in dollar very cheap and invest in other assets like commodities or stocks which pushes the price higher but when you look deep you see this is nothing more than asset inflation not the recovery that Wall Street is talking about.

The other week, we got the unemployment report. If you are one of my frequent readers you must seen the unemployment table that I posted the other week.
Here is the link:
It shows the real unemployment at 17.5% Wall Street crooks may fool average investors by talking about "jobless recovery", but there is no such a thing exist in real world. This is the creation of wishful minds of Wall Street that's all. Let’s see when this house of cards is going to fall apart.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

S&P500 Short Term Supports/Resistances Nov/10/09

S&P500 in short term: extremely bought.
S&P500 in intermediate term: extremely overbought.
S&P500 in long term: neutral.

Short Term Supports:

Short Term Resistances:

Related topics:
S&P500 Monthly Forecast Nov,2009

Saturday, November 7, 2009

The Real Unemployment Is 17.5%

The real unemployment hit the 26 years high. Table above speaks for its self.

Friday, November 6, 2009

S&P500 Possible Moves In November 2009

S&P500 technical analysis:
Here is my monthly forecast. Last month I did very will lets see how does this month is going to play out.
I give 20% chance to rally up to 1090 then S&P500 should roll over, and just 5% chance of possibility of breaking out 1100.If we break 1100 S&P500 should runs out steam at 1125-1150.
If S&P500 moves lower to 1015 there is 45% chance of short squeeze, but if 1015 could not hold there is 30% chance we head as low as 1000 or even more.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Some thought on market Nov/2009

There is so much damage has been done to market in a very short time that I don't think it's wise to jump back before S&P500 gets above 1066-1070. the support line that I mentioned in my previous post (1034) has held but I think we are going to finish this week in red. On the other hand due to over sold condition big short squeeze is not out of picture.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Ted Spread as of (10/30/09)

Value: 23.60