Sunday, March 27, 2011

Tokyo Electric Power Company continues to remove water from reactors

NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation): Tokyo Electric Power Company continues to seek ways to drain contaminated water from the quake-battered Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant where 3 workers were exposed to high levels of radiation.

The incident took place in the basement of the turbine building connected to the Number 3 reactor on Thursday. Three workers installing power cables waded into water that had 10,000 times the usual level of radiation found in a reactor.

After the incident, TEPCO found that not only the Number 3 turbine building, but also the Number 1 and Number 2 turbine buildings have highly irradiated water in their basements.

The company says it will pump the water from the basements into the turbine condensers for storage.

TEPCO plans to drain the basement of the Number 2 reactor turbine building on Sunday, and is studying ways to drain the basement of the Number 3 turbine building.

Meanwhile at the troubled Fukushima Daiichi plant, workers continue to pump fresh water instead of seawater into the Number 1 through 4 reactors to flush out salt.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Support level has held, let's see if we get the short squeeze

I was looking for a pull back to 1260, but Japanese nuclear crisis caused S&P500 to tank to 1250. I’m out of my shorts and I have been pressing "buy" since Thursday. I think if the 2 remaining reactors would not blow up 1250 would be the low for weeks to come. The Japanese crisis priced in, and we should get a "Dead Cat Bounce". At this point I won’ trust the up side moves until we get a clear view of what is really happening in Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant.

“The nuclear cores inside the reactors are usually covered in water, but the top halves of the cores in reactors 1, 2 and 3 were exposed to air for at least several days, according to reports from the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). Even if those cores are resubmerged, they may have experienced permanent damage that would make them more difficult to keep cool, Lyman said.

For instance, he said, if the exposed portions of the fuel rods have swelled due to heat, the gaps between them may now be too small to pass enough water to cool them.

In addition, when the zirconium cladding surrounding the cores was exposed to air, it may have oxidized and become so brittle that radioactive fuel particles could have escaped through cracks. If enough of the escaped fuel has collected at the bottom of the reactor vessel, it could become hot enough to melt through the steel container and escape into the environment, Lyman said. Even if the steel was not breached, the collection of fuel at the bottom of the container would also make it more difficult to cool.
"These cores may not be as easily cooled as if they were undamaged," Lyman said.
Workmen have been spraying all three with seawater for several days in an attempt to keep temperatures down, but the water has combined with the steam and radioactivity to make it difficult for workmen who are attempting to reconnect power.
Had there been no intervention at the stricken power plant, the nuclear fuel would have completely melted within six hours, Lyman said. That would have formed a "hot pool" of fuel that would have melted through the bottom of its stainless steel shell within two hours, he said. But neither of those scenarios has come to pass.

"If the seawater pumping had not been effective, this would have ended days ago," Lyman said. But as long as workers can continue to feed water into the plant, the situation could be stabilized indefinitely, he said.”

I think the move below 1300 is a bear trap, If I get it right we should experience a strong rally in coming days. I’m long but I won’t feel comfortable until S&P500 gets above 1320.
Pay attention to 1273-1276 as an important support level. If S&P500 close below it I would get out my long positions. If S&P500 stays above 1276 we should get a big short squeeze to 1308. Lets see what is going to play out.

* LA Times:,0,7441237.story?page=2

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Get ready for S&P500 big move !

S&P500 has sending mix signals. It has formed pennant ,which from technical stand point is very bullish, but in May 2010 same set up end up badly. Pennant formation give us the target of 1370 . As I mentioned before pay close attention to 1333 for conformed the bullish set up. If S&P500 tanks below 1304 for two days or more it should fell to 1280-1260. As long as S&P stays in yellow channel bulls have the upper hand. I'm a bull as long as the yellow channel is intact. If S&P drops below 1304 I will go short. Big institution may set up a "bear trap". It means we could get a fake out below 1300 support level for a day or two to trap average investors, then on Monday or Tuesday S&P500 could gap open higher and caused a big short squeeze. Lets see how it is going to play out?

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

S&P500 must get above 1333 soon!

In the past 2 weeks S&P500 has formed a bullish pennant. I'm looking for violent moves in coming days. We spend enough time to consolidate, now is the time to get the big move. If big institutions want to squeeze the shorts they must send the S&P above 1333. If S&P gets above 1333 to me it would be the conformation of the bullish set up, but if S&P500 closes below 1319 it would be very bearish. In the case of up trend channel violation you should go to the sideline. Note as long as S&P stays in yellow channel bulls have the upper hand. I'm a bull as long as the yellow channel is intact. If S&P drops below 1304 I will go short.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

S&P500 uptrend channel is still intact

The risk appetite is decreasing the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is on the rise,and the Spanish-German 10-year govt bond yield spread hit the 218 bps and Irish-German 10 Year Spread reached 618 bps which show no improvement in European crisis.

In last 6 trading days we witness big volume in down days that from technical aspect it is not a good signal, but I will give the pattern higher priority in my analysis. The up-trend channel still is intact therefore bulls did not lose the fight yet. Pay attention to possible violation of the yellow channel. If bulls fail to keep the S&P500 above 1294.26 they will be in trouble. I got out my long positions at 1322. I think the sell off is overdone, but big institution could send the market much lower. I would consider going short if S&P500 violates 1294 level, every body is bearish therefore I don't mind to go against the crowd and have some long trades; obviously if 1294 level would not hold I will get out of any long positions.