S&P500 Short Term Supports/Resistances Nov/10/09

S&P500 in short term: extremely bought.
S&P500 in intermediate term: extremely overbought.
S&P500 in long term: neutral.

Short Term Supports:
S1:1071
S2:1066
S3:1051
S4:1030

Short Term Resistances:
R1:1100-1111
R2:1125
R3:1152
R4:1166

Related topics:
S&P500 Monthly Forecast Nov,2009

The Real Unemployment Is 17.5%

The real unemployment hit the 26 years high. Table above speaks for its self.

S&P500 Possible Moves In November 2009

S&P500 technical analysis:
Here is my monthly forecast. Last month I did very will lets see how does this month is going to play out.
I give 20% chance to rally up to 1090 then S&P500 should roll over, and just 5% chance of possibility of breaking out 1100.If we break 1100 S&P500 should runs out steam at 1125-1150.
If S&P500 moves lower to 1015 there is 45% chance of short squeeze, but if 1015 could not hold there is 30% chance we head as low as 1000 or even more.

Iranian anti-government protesters demonstrated

Some thought on market Nov/2009

There is so much damage has been done to market in a very short time that I don't think it's wise to jump back before S&P500 gets above 1066-1070. the support line that I mentioned in my previous post (1034) has held but I think we are going to finish this week in red. On the other hand due to over sold condition big short squeeze is not out of picture.

Volcker on the economy

Volcker interview with CNBC
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/index.php?cl=16430655

Ted Spread as of (10/30/09)

Value: 23.60

S&P500 Short Term Supports (10/31/09)

We got the "dead cat bounce" that I mentioned in my previous post.
S&P500 volume was 50% higher than its average in down day, this is called institutional selling.
We are at a support (~1035) if it won't hold the next stop will be 1020 then 990-1000 which is 10% drops from high.
We could easily go down 10%; so far we dropped 5.8% we have 4.2% to go. Then we should wait to see if big guys are going to press buy button or not?

Don't be stupid and start to buy just because a support line held, wait for big institutions to start the buying frenzy then there is plenty of time for you to buy.

Some thought on Market

S&P500 has reached my October target 1100, and pulled back exactly at level that I forecasted a couple months ago. We violated many support lines, but technically we are due for a "Dead cat bounce" by end of this week, but it's too early to say if we are going to get it anything more than a bounce or not. Here is the link to October article: http://the-us-microeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/10/s-possible-moves-in-october-09.html
As you know consensus for 3Q GDP is 2.5 to 4 . It will be market mover on Thursday. Please note we must get above 1054-1066 very soon otherwise picture is going to become uglier. If big institutions want to move market higher they must push the S&P above 1050 on Thursday.

Related Topics:
S&P500 Possible Moves In August

Natural Gas Technical Analysis, (Part 5)

Natural Gas Chart:
Natural gas broke the down trend channel last month. It was very oversold and a technical rally was needed to normalize the price. On the other hand it found some problem to get above 5.20 seller were very active at $5.20 .
4.20 is the level to watch if natural gas moves below 4.20 it will damage the integrity of rally. If bulls push the gas above 5.5 it would be very positive. Note that fundamentals do not support natural gas price above $5.

UNG(United States Natural Gas) dropped below $11 if it fails to move above 11 with in next couple days bulls are in trouble. You are taking too much risk if you are a buyer at these levels. I would Wait for a pull back. Pay attention to 11.90 to 12.70 range, you should expect to see many sellers there.