S&P500 Technical Analysis Chart (03/31/2010)

S&P500 Technical Analysis Chart:
Chart speaks for itself. I don't see any need to add anything. if there is any question just drop me a line.

The Importance Of 1150 Level In S&P500

In my January 5, 2010 post I mentioned the 1165-1170 as potential resistance, I think bulls are running out of steam. Pay attention to 1150 is the first line of defence for bulls. If big institutions want to send the market higher they should keep S&P above 1150. If 1150 fails to hold the next line of defence would be 1120-1125. S&P500 must stay above 1120 if they want to shoot S&P to 1200 in coming months.

Short Term Supports/Resitances in S&P500:
S1:1150
S2:1130
S3:1120

R1:1170-1175
R2:1200-1210
R3:1230

Shanghai Index Technical Analysis (03/11/2010)

Look for Shanghai index as possible crystal ball for the U.S. equity markets. It started to top back in 2008 before U.S. equity markets did, and bottomed before S&P500 did. It could give us some clue what is going to happen to S&P500.
In the chart below is my analysis for Shanghai index for coming months. It has formed a double top pattern which is very bearish,but it's too early to say if it is going to head lower or not. I give 25% chances to shoot above 42771. Note that 42771 should act as resistance therefore there is 30% chance that Shanghai rallies to 42771 then roll over.
If Shanghai move down to 35570 and drops on high volume it could easily tanks to 32801. There is 20% chance that it hit the 32801 and bounces back, on the other hand if it stays below 32801 there is 25% chance of farther drop.
Note that so far Shanghai Index is under performing the U.S. equity markets, it is in consolidation phase. It's too early to come with any conclusion, but it would be helpful to see which way Shanghai Index will go in coming months.

Shanghai Index Technical Analysis Chart:

Simon Johnson On The Economy

Simon Johnson on the Doom Cycle from Roosevelt Institute.
He currently is the Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at the Sloan School of Management at MIT.

>

I See Weakness Watch Out For Pull Back! (03/08/2010)

We are going up on extremely low volume,there is no conviction on the upside from big institutions. 1120 to 1150 is the major resistance band. Watch out for pull back!
On the other hand if S&P500 moves above 1150 we would have potential to shoot for 1200. Note S&P must stay above 1150 to hit my bullish target.

This is an interesting interview I recommend to watch it.
Jim Bianco on the U.S. Economy & Housing Market

Total Unemployed 16.8%

You are not going to hear this from Wall Street crooks or talking heads in CNBC or Bloomberg. The total unemployed increased by 0.3% to seasonally adjusted 16.8% compare with previous month.