Thursday, March 11, 2010

Shanghai Index Technical Analysis (03/11/2010)

Look for Shanghai index as possible crystal ball for the U.S. equity markets. It started to top back in 2008 before U.S. equity markets did, and bottomed before S&P500 did. It could give us some clue what is going to happen to S&P500.
In the chart below is my analysis for Shanghai index for coming months. It has formed a double top pattern which is very bearish,but it's too early to say if it is going to head lower or not. I give 25% chances to shoot above 42771. Note that 42771 should act as resistance therefore there is 30% chance that Shanghai rallies to 42771 then roll over.
If Shanghai move down to 35570 and drops on high volume it could easily tanks to 32801. There is 20% chance that it hit the 32801 and bounces back, on the other hand if it stays below 32801 there is 25% chance of farther drop.
Note that so far Shanghai Index is under performing the U.S. equity markets, it is in consolidation phase. It's too early to come with any conclusion, but it would be helpful to see which way Shanghai Index will go in coming months.

Shanghai Index Technical Analysis Chart: