Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Retail Sales

Retail store sales chart:
Real retail sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline was 0.6%:

We got the retail store sales on Tuesday.
It jumped 2.7% in August, following a revised 0.2% drop the previous month. The gain in August was above economists expectation for a 2.0% surge. Thanks to 3 billion dollars government subsidies auto sales jumped a huge 10.6% for the latest month, but here is the catch excluding motor vehicles, retail sales rebounded 1.1%, following a revised 0.5% fall in July. The market was looking for a 0.4% gain for August.Please note gasoline sales spiked 5.1% on higher prices otherwise the retails sales data would be much lower, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales posted a 0.6% advance, following a 0.4% decrease the previous month.

Overall retail sales on a year-ago basis in August were down 5.3 percent, improving from down 8.5 percent in July. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year rate rose to down 6.2 percent in August from down 8.6% the month before. Please note that August is the month that people go to shop for school and we should see a jump in retail sale, but it was 8.6% down year to year.
As long as S&P stays above 1007-1015 we are technically in the bull market, but fundamentals is very weak and can't justify the rally. As you see in the chart above Year to year retail sales is badly lower, I need to remind my readers last year at this time we were in the edge of collapse, but despite the +50% rally the retails sales does not show a strong improvement. Actually year to year we were 6.2% lower. If I want to base my analogy on fundamentals this rally would be a humongous bear market rally not a new bull market.
If you believe we are in bull market you should know you are trading base on pure technical, but I would go with fundamentals.