What could determine long copper price?
1)Incremental cost of supplies.
2)Supply and demand.
3)Price dynamics – impact on supply and demand.
4)Adverse effects of Dollar value on commodities prices.
5)Availability of money to finance projects.
6)Demand response to price.
Copper is tight to global growth, but in recent weeks it failed to stay above the major resistance (40.60) . If copper heads lower in coming days, it would be a warning signal for bulls. To me copper is the canary in a coal mine, if speculation of strong recovery begins to faint, it should reflect in copper price first.
There are 3 resistances that you should pay attention to:
Please note that copper is the consolidation phase as long as it moves in 38 to 41 range. On the other hand if copper could move above 41.16 it has potential to shoot higher. Note that dollar value is declining that should cause the commodities to move higher but copper did not follow the normal trend, it follows the recovery story. If the recovery becomes a mirage you should witness big drop in copper price.