Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Treasury Bond Technical Analysis

iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond technical analysis chart:
Chart above is very clear therefore I make it short. I pointed a up trend channel in the chart, as long as TLT stays in this channel bulls have the upper hand, there is nothing bearish in chart, the up trend channel still is intact, and TLT is above 200 SMA(see the chart in orange color). What you need to pay attention in coming days would be 102.70 support level. It's critical in the short term that TLT stays above this level. At this point I give 30% chance to violation of up trend and move below 101. There is 25% chance it rallies to 105.28 then it could roll over. on the other hand if it gets above 105 and stays above it for a couple days there is 45% chance TLT makes a new high.