Sunday, September 12, 2010

S&P500 Technical Analysis Base On The Elliott Wave Theory (Part-4.V)

S&P500 Technical Analysis Chart: "Click on the chart to zoom in."

Next week would be impossible to predict, due to Triple Witching Day. But here is my analysis on market. I hope it helps my readers to make sense of market.

the upper side the channel got hit for the second time. S&P500 broke out the down trend channel (see the chart in blue), which is very bullish. We have to wait to see if S&P500 can take out the 1131 or not? I think it's a fake out not a real thing, but if S&P500 could stay above 1131 shorts will get squeeze and we'll get a strong rally to 1170 in coming weeks.
I was looking for a rally from 1040 to 1090, but S&P500 exceed my forecast by 19 points. I think we already seen the completion of sub-wave "IV" and we should head lower to complete the sub-wave "V". What we need to pay attention in coming weeks would be 1131 level in the upside. If big institutions want to squeeze the shorts and send the market higher they must push the S&P above 1131. If S&P500 falls back into the down trend channel bears would have the upper hand. Please note if S&P500 rolls over and heads lower it could get a bounce from 1075-1066, but if S&P500 stays below 1075 for a couple days GAME OVER for bulls. In this case it should head for 1010 or lower.