Wednesday, July 14, 2010

On the "Road To Recovery" or "Road To The Great Depression II" ?

Net Loan Losses to Average Total Loans for all U.S. Banks:
Commercial Net Loan Charge-offs:
Assets At Banks Whose Exceeds Their Nonperforming Loans: Charts above speaks for themselves, therefore I make it short and right to the point. If Ben Bernanke the head of Federal Bank of Reserve is telling the truth and banks are on the road to recovery; why do their nonperforming loans exceed their assets? what about net loan charge-offs or net loan losses why doesn't it go down?!
I need to remind my readers that charts above do not show the real picture. Due to relaxation mark-to-market accounting rule, banks no longer obligated to mark their toxic assets to market, instead they used mark-to-model. Therefore the actual data is much worse than they say it in public. Banks are far from "road to recovery", as a financial analyst I think this is the road to the Great Depression II.
Market moves base on pure technical, with no fundamentals to back it up. Therefore I think investors should use technical analysis as the guideline, if they want to be profitable.

Net Loan Charge-offs: Gross amount of loans charged off as bad debt, less recoveries collected from earlier charge-offs. Net charge-offs are computed as a percentage of gross loans outstanding recorded, less unearned income and Loan Loss Reserves for charged-off loans. Poor credit quality loans that are not worth keeping on the books are purged from the loan portfolio, usually monthly or quarterly. A minus sign before the net charge off amount means recoveries have exceeded charge-offs for an accounting period.

Nonperforming Loan: A loan is considered as a nonperforming when it is in default or close to being in default. In the other words when payments of interest and principal are past due by 90 days or more, or at least 90 days of interest payments have been capitalized, refinanced or delayed by agreement, or payments are less than 90 days overdue, but there are other good reasons to doubt that payments will be made in full.