Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Congratulation we have a new born bear market!

S&P500 Technical Analysis chart:
What we have witnessed is the new stage of the bear market. It's just a grizzly cub at this point, it needs a couple weeks before natural bulls are going to admit that we have a new born and bulls rally is over. If you go deep you see we never come out of the secular bear market. We did not have a bull market to begin with; as an analyst I consider 666.79 (March 6th 2009 low) to 1219.80 (May 26th High) rally a humongous bear market rally because S&P500 failed to move above 1230, it does not fall to bull market criteria.

Please note that from 1040 to 1100 is the no mans land, bulls could argue that 1040 has hold three times therefore S&P500 has potential to rally. I have seen many bulls like Bob Doll Chief Equity Strategist of BlackRock or Michael Darda chief economist at MKM and many others doing marathon shows on CNBC and Bloomberg, but as days go they become less confidence in their bullish arguments. If you follow stock market closely you should remember that Michael Darda was up beat all the way into the late summer 2008, surprise surprise! We call them natural bulls they never give up, they are always bullish.

There are some bulls who did not give up yet and weak hand bears who rush to cover their short positions as soon as they see some buying, that's why we witness extreme moves to the up side like June 8th-9th with no follow up. These moves are classic short squeeze right from text books. I'm looking to violation of 1040 support level. When S&P500 breaks 1040 it would give bears more confidence to hold to their short positions. If you are a bull you should pray to God that some how S&P500 gets above 1100. This is the "value trap" not a buying opportunity. Note S&P500 below 1100 is not a buy.

I'm neutral in short term as long as S&P500 moves between 1100 to 1040, but I will remain bearish in intermediate and long term.