Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Break Out Or Fake Out?

S&P500 Chart:
S&P500 has break out the main channel on low volume. To me it is the warning signal.
S&P500 has rallied more than 7% in past 6 days, you should ask your self what has changed that caused such a huge rally?
I will go over the second quarter earnings in detail on Friday, but so far nothing spectacular come out the 2nd Q earnings with the exception of GS (Goldman Sachs).

S&P500 broke the short tern down trend on Wednesday July 17th, and in past 4 days has managed to stay above it ,plus it has broken the main channel, and channel-2 that is very bullish. S&P has entered into the channel-1 (see the chart in blue) that from technical perspective it is very impressive ,but here is the catch, WHERE IS THE VOLUME?!!

In my opinion what we have seen in past 6 day is just a huge shoortsqueez and nothing more, but it's too early to come with conclusion.It seams big institutions want to send the market higher,but as I mentioned in my previous post I need more time to digest recent moves to determine if it's a breakout or fake out!