Monday, June 29, 2009

Consolidation Phase, Before Big Move (June)

S&P500 broke the short term down trend on Thursday,there is a possibility of formation of a new down trend(I pointed by dotted blue line).I'm not sure what is going to play out. There are so many mix signals that make analysis difficult. S&P500 could formed a bullish "cup and handle" or a bearish formation of "head and shoulders" at the same time. Therefore I consider it as indecision between market movers or consolidation phase.

Note 200 SMA acted as support, but in my opinion we are in consolidation phase. At this point you should watch to see if it can break above 927 in coming days or not. If S&P break 880 there is no reason to stay long.

May's low acted as support for Dow Jones if it breaks the 8200 level we should see the acceleration in sell off.

NASDAQ is the leader. It formed a new uptrend and 200 EMA became support, that is very positive. It's critical for bulls that NASDAQ won't violate the new channel.