S&P500 Possible Moves In Feburay 2011

S&P500 technical analysis chart:
S&P500 hit the 1300 resistance and we got the pull back that I was looking for. I think we are going to get the minimum of 3-5% correction in near future. We did not violate the yellow channel yet, therefore bulls have the upper hands. I would like to see what big institutions are going to do when S&P500 reaches the lower side the yellow channel. If S&P500 tanks below 1247 picture will become ugly.
In the short term time frame S&P500 is oversold therefore I'm looking for a slightly up move to 1283-1290 before we head lower. I think 1283-1290 would be a reasonable level for bears who missed the move to jump on the bandwagon. Please note if S&P500 gets above 1290 it could rally to 1313, if it stays above 1290 for a couple days you have no business to stay short.

Supports
S1:1260
S2:1247
S3:1228-1220 (Major)

Resistances:
R1:1280-1283
R2:1290
R3:1300-1313 (Major)

Pay attention to 1300-1313 levels in S&P500

S&P500 technical analysis chart:

If S&P500 violates the pink channel it will drop to retest the yellow channel.I'm looking to a pull back to 1260 with in next 2 weeks. As long as S&P500 stays in yellow channel bulls have the upper hand. Please note 1300-1313 is the major resistance in coming weeks, bears are not going to miss this opportunity to go short. We are going to witness a big drop when S&P500 reaches 1300. I would like to see if there are any buyers when we tank to 1260?

watch out! I have noticed un usual activities in equity markets

In the past 3 days I have noticed un usual activities at institutional level. To me it is the warning signal, such actions in the past end up badly. I'm looking for a big move in coming days. S&P500 is over extended, pay attention to 1300-1313 as problem area. If we get a pull back 1260 and 1236 would be possible support levels. If S&P500 tanks below 1236 bulls are in trouble.

European crisis getting worse day by day. The 10 year Greece government bond yields 12.64% and Portugal 10 year government bond yields 7.113% in last couple days they have moved significantly higher.

Ireland 10 Year Government Bond Yield Chart:


Spain makes me nervous the German-Spanish 10 year spread is on the rise. If German-Spanish 10 year spread get above 2.8 basis points you need to reduce your risk and get out your risky assets.

German-Spanish 10 Year Spread Chart:

Important technical levels in January 2011 for S&P500

The real game will start today. Big guys are back from vacations; market should become volatile soon. By second weeks of January I should have a vision which way market is headed.
Meanwhile pay attention to ~1260 and 1300 as problem areas. S&P500 has moved sideways for many days it's about time we get some action. If S&P500 stays above 1260; it would have the potential to shoot for 1300 level. If big institutions start to sell, I would look for 1232.56 as the first line of defence. If it would not holds S&P500 would tank to 1245 then 1220.
Please note if S&P500 stays below 1228 for a couple days it would be very bearish.