Sunday, March 20, 2011

Support level has held, let's see if we get the short squeeze

I was looking for a pull back to 1260, but Japanese nuclear crisis caused S&P500 to tank to 1250. I’m out of my shorts and I have been pressing "buy" since Thursday. I think if the 2 remaining reactors would not blow up 1250 would be the low for weeks to come. The Japanese crisis priced in, and we should get a "Dead Cat Bounce". At this point I won’ trust the up side moves until we get a clear view of what is really happening in Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant.

“The nuclear cores inside the reactors are usually covered in water, but the top halves of the cores in reactors 1, 2 and 3 were exposed to air for at least several days, according to reports from the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). Even if those cores are resubmerged, they may have experienced permanent damage that would make them more difficult to keep cool, Lyman said.

For instance, he said, if the exposed portions of the fuel rods have swelled due to heat, the gaps between them may now be too small to pass enough water to cool them.

In addition, when the zirconium cladding surrounding the cores was exposed to air, it may have oxidized and become so brittle that radioactive fuel particles could have escaped through cracks. If enough of the escaped fuel has collected at the bottom of the reactor vessel, it could become hot enough to melt through the steel container and escape into the environment, Lyman said. Even if the steel was not breached, the collection of fuel at the bottom of the container would also make it more difficult to cool.
"These cores may not be as easily cooled as if they were undamaged," Lyman said.
Workmen have been spraying all three with seawater for several days in an attempt to keep temperatures down, but the water has combined with the steam and radioactivity to make it difficult for workmen who are attempting to reconnect power.
Had there been no intervention at the stricken power plant, the nuclear fuel would have completely melted within six hours, Lyman said. That would have formed a "hot pool" of fuel that would have melted through the bottom of its stainless steel shell within two hours, he said. But neither of those scenarios has come to pass.

"If the seawater pumping had not been effective, this would have ended days ago," Lyman said. But as long as workers can continue to feed water into the plant, the situation could be stabilized indefinitely, he said.”

I think the move below 1300 is a bear trap, If I get it right we should experience a strong rally in coming days. I’m long but I won’t feel comfortable until S&P500 gets above 1320.
Pay attention to 1273-1276 as an important support level. If S&P500 close below it I would get out my long positions. If S&P500 stays above 1276 we should get a big short squeeze to 1308. Lets see what is going to play out.

* LA Times:,0,7441237.story?page=2