Tuesday, March 1, 2011

S&P500 uptrend channel is still intact

The risk appetite is decreasing the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is on the rise,and the Spanish-German 10-year govt bond yield spread hit the 218 bps and Irish-German 10 Year Spread reached 618 bps which show no improvement in European crisis.

In last 6 trading days we witness big volume in down days that from technical aspect it is not a good signal, but I will give the pattern higher priority in my analysis. The up-trend channel still is intact therefore bulls did not lose the fight yet. Pay attention to possible violation of the yellow channel. If bulls fail to keep the S&P500 above 1294.26 they will be in trouble. I got out my long positions at 1322. I think the sell off is overdone, but big institution could send the market much lower. I would consider going short if S&P500 violates 1294 level, every body is bearish therefore I don't mind to go against the crowd and have some long trades; obviously if 1294 level would not hold I will get out of any long positions.