Monday, December 20, 2010

S&P500 Should Move Sideway In Second Half Of Dec

Equity Markets usually move side ways or slightly higher in second half of December. Trading volume should be very low because big guys are gone for vacation and won't be back until first week of January, therefore we should not witness any violent moves. If S&P500 tanks below 1232.86 it means we are headed to retest 1228-1220. As I mentioned many times before as long as S&P500 stays above 1228 bulls will have the upper hand.

I would use US dollar as a reliable precursor for market moves in next 2 weeks. Pay attention to 80.63 as first line of defence dollar bears are going to short the dollar at this level, if dollar get above 80.63 it means it has potential to rally to 82.62 or as high as 83.71.

US Dollar technical analysis chart:

Base on my analysis if dollar stays above 80.63 for 2 days it means S&P500 will tank to 1228-1220. I expect a big fight at 1228-1220, between optimists and pessimists. On Elliot wave analysis; we are in sub-wave (5) but it is possible that sub wave (5) continue as high as 1300 (see the chart [Alt]:5).

S&P500 technical analysis chart:

As you know by now I'm a contrarian analyst therefore I'm going against the crowd, everybody is bullish therefore I'm looking to short stock and go long treasury as soon as I could detect some weakness in market, please note this is a swing trade not a position trade.

The only thing that has potential to take the US stock market down is European crisis. Despite IMF bailout of Greece, bond vigilantes are causing the Greece 10 year government bond to move higher it yield 11.9048% . As financial analyst I would say, game over for Greece. They don't have any chance anymore they are going to default with in a couple months. Bond traders are asking for 8.45% yield to lend money to Ireland for the next 10 year, after ECB (European Central Bank) announced that they are going to bail out Ireland 10 year bond yield fell from recent high of ~9.47 to ~7.95, but in recent days it started to move higher. We are witnessing the exact same scenario for Portugal 10 year government bond; it fell from ~7.20% to ~5.80% and in recent days has move higher. It would be interesting to see what is going to play out in Europe when Spain government bond get above 9%.

Spain 10 year government bond yield from 1993 to 2010: